WILL GAZA BE BIDEN’S VIETNAM?
As pro-Palestinian protests roiled campuses across the country, from Columbia University in New York to the University of California in Los Angeles, with police clashing with student demonstrators, some observers had flashbacks to the protests against another war, under another President, in another fateful year: 1968.
As pro-Palestinian protests roiled campuses across the country, from Columbia University in New York to the University of California in Los Angeles, with police clashing with student demonstrators, some observers had flashbacks to the protests against another war, under another President, in another fateful year: 1968.
That year, Vietnam War protests moved from the campuses to the streets, culminating in the violent confrontation with Chicago police wielding nightsticks outside the downtown Hilton hotel during the Democratic National Convention, just as Vice President Hubert Humphrey was accepting the party’s presidential nomination.
The bloody spectacle in the streets permanently tainted Humphrey’s campaign. He narrowly lost the race for the White House to law-and-order Republican candidate Richard Nixon.
Now, some Democrats wonder, as Yogi Berra once memorably said, can déjà vu happen all over again?
“Well, it’s a danger. A serious danger. Clear and present danger,” said longtime progressive activist Don Rose. Rose was among the demonstrators outside the Hilton in 1968, as spokesman for the National Mobilization to End the War in Vietnam, a principal organizer of the protests.
“Of course, there are differences. The size of the pro-Palestinian protests are not nearly as large as it was in the Vietnam War. And there’s a lot less that (President) Biden can do about it,” said Rose. “The Vietnam War was all in the hands of our President rather than people trying to make a bank shot from Biden to (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu. And there’s no draft involved here, no American troops fighting. So, there are differences but there’s no question that there is the potential for the loss of a lot of voters there in a very close election.”
In 2020’s win over Donald Trump, voters aged 18 to 29 gave Biden 61 per cent of their votes, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. The biannual Harvard Institute of Politics survey, released in April, showed Biden pulling 56 per cent of voters under 30 most likely to vote in November.
Even a small erosion in Biden’s 2020 support among young voters could be significant in the swing states that decide the election. And one of those states, Michigan, also has a significant Muslim population centered in metropolitan Detroit that has been outspoken against Israel’s conduct of the war and Biden’s support for the Jewish state.
At Northwestern University, where pro-Palestinian protesters set up camp on a pristine meadow outside the Gothic-styled Deering Library, the administration negotiated an agreement with the demonstrators avoiding police intervention. But the issue of the Gaza War, and America’s support for it, has resonated with students.
“I can’t see myself voting for a candidate who supports Israel,” said freshman Nailaih Archer, 18.
Others see the issue as posing a dilemma, despite Biden’s support for the war.
“As much as I’d like to say the Gaza War is going to impact my vote, I don’t feel like I really have a choice,” said Clayton Zipperian, 19, a freshman. “I dislike Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, but Trump’s an even more strident backer of Israel and I definitely don’t trust him. I think in terms of voting for a Presidential candidate it’s just the lesser of two evils again.”
Grad student Christina Viter, 29, expressed a similar quandary.
“I don’t entirely appreciate Biden’s support for Israel but I would never vote for Trump so I’m kind of between a rock and a hard place,” Viter said.
The Gaza War fractures the Democratic Party’s base in numerous ways. Not only does it create fault lines among young voters, it also potentially divides the Jewish vote. President Biden has been a strong supporter of Israel throughout his political career.
Don Rose, who is a Jew, believes Biden must take action to rein in Israeli tactics causing mass casualties among Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
“He has to take a very firm hand and make it clear that they’re going to stop sending armaments to Netanyahu if they don’t abandon the invasion of Rafah. He has to be more definitive about it so Netanyahu will take it more seriously,” said Rose.
Days later, President Biden said he was stopping a shipment of 1,800 2,000-pound bunker-busting bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs out of fear they could be used in an assault of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
Does Rose believe Biden’s action could cost him Jewish votes?
“I don’t think it will hurt his Jewish support significantly,” said Rose. “Jewish voters are already worried about the humanitarian costs of this war…and significantly aware of the dangers of Trump.”
But Chicago-based Democratic campaign consultant Thomas Bowen downplays the impact of the Gaza War on President Biden’s support and doesn’t see disruption of the Democratic National Convention as a major risk.
“I am not very concerned about the President’s standing with voters and even young voters related to any foreign affairs issues,” said Bowen. “It just doesn’t affect people’s lives the way all of us that pay frequent attention to politics think it does.”
Instead, Bowen said its economic issues that are the prime worry of voters across the age spectrum.
“The top concerns for voters aged 50 and under, 40 and under, 18 to 39…Number one, it’s inflation. Number two, it’s health care. Number three, it’s jobs and the economy. Whether it’s Gaza, whether it’s Ukraine, whatever else is going on in foreign affairs, Gaza’s does not have the same effect on people’s lives as bread-and-butter issues.”
Looking at the election from a big picture perspective, Bowen believes another metric of voter sentiment is far more important.
“The country is perceived by the vast majority of voters to be on the wrong track. And in front of voters are two familiar candidates, the same two that ran the last time,” said Bowen. “And so does Gaza put Michigan in play because of Arab American voters…no, I don’t think so because if Gaza is solved tomorrow those same voters…young people, Muslim voters, black voters, Latino, old and young…the vast majority of them still think the country is on the wrong track. Because what’s causing right track-wrong track to be so out of whack is inflation. If inflation is solved tomorrow, or the perception of inflation on people’s wallets, that’s a game changer. The battleground stuff changes. But Gaza doesn’t play in the way that’s on the news. It’s a small piece of what’s going on in voters’ lives.”
To Bowen’s point, even the Harvard Institute of Politics survey shows 60 per cent of young people say the country is on the wrong track.
Bowen thinks fears of 1968-type disorder on Chicago’s streets are overblown. He says the city proved during the 1996 Democratic convention and the NATO meetings in 2012 that it can handle large-scale demonstrations.
“Look, if Chicago is burning and there’s looting left and right and general chaos, then of course that’s going to weigh negatively on the President’s reelection message,” said Bowen. “But I just don’t think that’s going to happen because (Chicago Police) Superintendent (Larry) Snelling knows what the hell he’s doing, I think the Governor’s an adult and we’re going to have the full resources of the federal government here to make sure everybody gets their opportunity to protest without doing anything stupid.”
Pro-Palestinian groups are planning mass demonstrations around the convention. According to the Wall Street Journal, Hatem Abudayyeh, chair of the U. S. Palestinian Community Network said the March on the DNC “will be the largest mobilization for Palestine” in the city’s history.
Chicago will receive $75 million in federal funding for convention security, to be used on everything from bomb-detecting technology to police overtime. The city also will use some of that money to purchase two new helicopters for its fleet. The convention has been designated a national special security event, with the Secret Service as the lead agency for convention security.
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