Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, who leveraged his billionaire fortune to win the state’s top office, is once again rewriting the rules of political spending—this time in a battle over Illinois’ tax system.
Pritzker has already broken records for campaign expenditures, personally contributing $161 million to defeat Republican Governor Bruce Rauner in 2018. Now, he’s funding a massive push to abolish Illinois’ flat income tax, pouring $56.5 million of his own money into the effort—a new state record for spending on a ballot initiative.
What Is the Fair Tax?
Pritzker’s Fair Tax proposal seeks to replace Illinois’ flat income tax with a progressive system, where higher earners pay higher rates. Under the plan:
- The top 3% of earners would see a tax increase.
- The changes aim to generate billions in new revenue for the state.
“Our tax system is broken, benefiting millionaires and billionaires over working families,” says Quentin Fulks, executive director of the Vote Yes for Fairness campaign. “The Fair Tax won’t fix all inequalities, but the additional revenue can help address them.”
A Tough Road to Passage
Despite Pritzker’s deep pockets, passage of the referendum is uncertain. Voter trust in state government has been eroded by the COVID-19 pandemic, economic hardship, and high-profile corruption scandals.
“Advocates face a tougher task,” says UIC political science professor Dick Simpson. “You’re asking people to say they trust the state with more money, at a time when public confidence is low.”
Simpson points to the federal bribery investigation involving Commonwealth Edison and former House Speaker Michael Madigan as a key obstacle. While Pritzker insists the probe has no connection to the tax proposal, opponents are using it to stoke voter skepticism.
Who’s Opposing the Fair Tax?
Opposition to the referendum is led by pro-business and Republican-aligned groups, including:
- The Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment.
- NO Progressive Tax.
- The Coalition for Jobs, Growth, and Prosperity, an offshoot of Illinois Ideas, led by Greg Baise, former head of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association.
Critics argue the new tax system would harm businesses and job creators, especially during a pandemic-induced recession. “This will add another burden, forcing businesses to leave Illinois,” says Todd Maisch, CEO of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce.
Maisch also disputes the fairness of the proposal, claiming the current flat tax system is equitable. “The top 20% of earners already pay two-thirds of all income taxes. The rest pay the remaining third. That’s fair,” he contends.
While opponents have raised just over $115,000 compared to Pritzker’s $56 million, they believe their simpler message—”It’ll cost you more, you can’t trust the state, vote no”—is enough to resonate with voters.
Does Money Decide Ballot Questions?
Historically, spending has played a decisive role in Illinois referendums. Since 2008, the side that raised the most money won every statewide ballot initiative.
However, the Fair Tax fight is on an entirely different scale. The $56.5 million raised by supporters dwarfs Illinois’ previous record of $7.1 million, spent on a 2014 campaign to establish a crime victims’ bill of rights.
Nationally, big spending often prevails in ballot initiatives, as seen in California’s 2016 prescription drug pricing battle, where $111 million in fundraising led to victory.
The Campaign Ahead
With Pritzker’s backing, Fair Tax supporters plan a media blitz across TV, radio, and social media to educate voters on the referendum.
“It’s about informing voters what’s on the ballot and how it impacts them,” says Fulks.
Still, experts caution that money alone may not secure a win. Simpson notes, “Convincing people to vote for a tax increase, even on the wealthy, is harder than getting them to vote against it.”
Veteran political consultant Delmarie Cobb emphasizes the need for targeted messaging that ties the referendum to voters’ lives. “How does the Fair Tax help you? How does it address COVID-19, recession, systemic racism, and violence? Voters need to see its relevance,” she says.
Cobb also warns that disengaged voters, particularly minorities, could be pivotal. “The message has to be: Vote the whole ballot. The referendum will be at the bottom—don’t stop at the top.”
As the November election approaches, Illinois faces a defining moment on tax policy. With record-breaking spending and high-stakes messaging on both sides, the outcome will not only shape the state’s finances but also serve as a barometer for public trust in government.